2025-05-01 19:32:31

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On Wednesday morning, Peter Dutton told Nova 100 Melbourne: "I think everyone's a bit exhausted." Undoubtedly, election campaigns are gruelling — it's five weeks of criss-crossing the country at breakneck pace, running on minimal sleep while being expected to smile for the cameras and exude the energy of a golden retriever. "I've enjoyed meeting a lot of families and hearing their stories," Dutton told 2GB on Tuesday. "One of the highlights was up at Townsville with the diggers on Anzac Day, just having a drink with them and playing two-up." Flanked by veterans and revellers, it was a rare moment of genuine voter engagement — undoubtedly Dutton's best moment in a campaign that has failed to pick up necessary momentum. Unfazed by his rocky start, Dutton declared "most Australians haven't switched on yet", stating the election would be decided in the final week. Two days before polling day, when asked if he would have done things differently in hindsight — such as release his policies earlier — Dutton said: "We should have called out Labor's lies earlier on." In 2022, first-time opposition leader Anthony Albanese did not have a smooth campaign, which was defined by "gotcha" moments and a combative relationship with the press. When compared to his political rival, though, Dutton's campaign has appeared lacklustre. This week, social media feeds lit up with footage of the Coalition's media bus stuck in the middle of Sydney's CBD on Monday, and many Instagram users viewed it as a metaphor for the campaign: The wheels hadn't quite fallen off, but the bus had stalled. The mishap came after Sunday's fourth leaders' debate , where the Channel 7 studio audience delivered Albanese his third debate victory, after Dutton underestimated the cost of a carton of eggs. The two leaders' campaigns have been very different. Labor's media team is proactive with information, wanting journalists to cover Albanese's every move. The Liberal media team is friendly but withholds logistical details — in keeping with more traditional campaign protocol. They have been outdone in terms of picture opportunities — a critical component when designing a campaign that essentially exists to be documented by news cameras. Labor has portrayed Dutton as a "risk" with the slogan "he'll cut and you'll pay", while the Coalition asks voters: "Are you better off now than you were three years ago?" Albanese has at times been testy towards the media while Dutton has been perfectly cordial during press conferences — only to then accuse the travelling press of being "biased" and "activist", referring to the ABC and Guardian as "the hate media", with critics drawing comparisons to United States President Donald Trump's comments about the media in the US. Like Trump, Dutton and his team may yet win the election. "This election is a referendum not on the last few weeks of this campaign, but on the last three years of [Albanese's] government," Dutton said. Whether that's true will be revealed in just a day. The Coalition's belief it can win despite official opinion polling is bolstered by internal surveys, which suggest the soft vote is still very pliable. "The response that we've had through that polling, and more importantly, the response we've had at pre-poll has been pretty extraordinary — so I think there's something happening that's quite different to what we're seeing in the published polls in the newspapers," Dutton said. This, in addition to preference support from Pauline Hanson's One Nation in key marginal seats, could be enough to defy the odds. Polling suggests support for the right-wing party will be higher in 2025 than it was in 2022. In turn, the Coalition has ended a three-decade stoush with One Nation by preferencing it on how to vote cards in 57 electorates across the country. Asked if he would cut a deal with the minor party to form a majority government, Dutton said "the only independents who are in prospect in the lower house are those that are already there, or some in teal seats, or Greens seats". "So there's no negotiation in relation to that at all." Albanese has similarly ruled out written deals with crossbenchers to form a majority, confirming Labor would rather negotiate on a legislation-by-legislation basis than share power with the Greens, independents or minor parties. Of course, preferencing arrangements do exist between Labor and the Greens, although all parties are at pains to stress the arrangements are not "deals". Days out from an election, questions of accountability and transparency loom over both leaders. Albanese has bizarrely struggled to admit that he fell off a stage, or that Treasury did, in fact, model negative gearing changes, and that energy bills have increased by $1,200 on average (not decreased by $275, as promised). He has not unveiled Labor's proposed permanent migration program for 2025-26. Meanwhile, the Coalition has only just released its policy costings . Critical details on how it will achieve key policies like slashing migration, cutting the public service, or building nuclear reactors remain as clear as mud. Holding his daily press conference at 8.30am, hours before his party's detailed costings were released, Dutton did not provide more clarity. "I think what Australians will see out of our figures is that our economy will be better off under a Liberal government," he said. In 2022, Labor also released its costings on the Thursday before the last election, leaving little time for voters to digest the details. Asked on Thursday if he needed a 2019 Scott Morrison-style miracle to secure victory, Dutton was characteristically even-keeled. "I feel confident. I feel good about where our candidates are," he said. The belief is based on the assertion that people are "sick of not being able to pay their bills" and will revolt to "kick a bad government out". "I think you'll see a lot of surprises — seat by seat — on Saturday night." Whether Dutton has managed to sell his plan for change remains to be seen. The surprises could very well come — but they could potentially cause upsets to both major parties. download our app subscribe to our newsletter SBS election portal